Thinking about buying before the end of 2025? Many buyers paused over the summer. September is a great time to re-engage with a clear plan. Here are the three signals I watch closely for clients in Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, and Oshawa.
1) Rate Spread
What it is: The gap between fixed mortgage rates and the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield.
Why it matters: A narrowing spread can indicate lenders are easing rates.
Action: If you see the spread tighten week over week, ask your lender for a rate hold so you can shop with confidence.
2) Inventory
Active listings are up year over year (CREA). More supply creates options.
Action: Widen your search by one nearby neighbourhood or shift your price band slightly. This is how buyers spot value others miss.
3) Price Reductions
Homes sitting 30+ days often present opportunity.
Action: Consider a lower offer or negotiate credits for repairs and closing costs. Pair this with a solid pre-approval to move decisively.
Quick Local Tips
Pickering
Where to look: Liverpool, Amberlea, West Shore, Bay Ridges near the GO and waterfront trails.
Tactic: Compare freehold townhomes vs. condos to find monthly carrying cost sweet spots.
Ajax
Where to look: Central Ajax near amenities, Lakeside, and Northeast Ajax for newer builds.
Tactic: Track listings that relist after a pause. Sellers may be more flexible the second time out.
Whitby
Where to look: Pringle Creek, Williamsburg, and Brooklin for family homes close to schools and parks.
Tactic: Target properties at 28–35 days on market and ask for a small seller credit toward closing.
Oshawa
Where to look: Centennial and O’Neill for character homes, Northglen and Pinecrest for larger lots.
Tactic: If renovations are needed, price out work in advance and use the estimate during negotiations.
Smart Buyer Checklist
Get a rate hold in writing for 60–120 days.
Set MLS alerts that include one extra neighbourhood.
Save a watchlist of homes on market 30+ days.
Bring a contractor or inspector to second showings when possible.
Be ready with deposit funds so you can move when the right home appears.
FAQ
Is fall a good time to buy in Durham Region?
Yes. Inventory typically improves after summer and before the holiday slowdown, which can create negotiating room.
Should I wait for rates to drop?
Timing the market is tough. A rate hold protects you if rates rise and lets you benefit if they fall.
How do I find real value right now?
Look for well located homes with small cosmetic needs, price reductions, or longer days on market.
If a move is on your mind in the next 6–12 months, I would be glad to walk through your situation and outline your options.
Robert Turnbull | Turnbull Real Estate
Call or text 905-409-3735